Big Spender

I see so much misinformation in what passes for news media in this country that I prefer not to get my opinions from the talking heads on TV. Rather, I prefer to form my own opinions based on facts, not fables. Much has been spoken and written in conservative media about Obama’s “reckless spending.” I decided to look at the actual numbers and try to find the truth. I asked the question: how does government spending under Obama compare with government spending under past presidents? I looked at every fiscal year since Reagan took office.

Keep in mind that only Congress can authorize spending. The President can propose a budget to Congress, but it’s really a wish list; Congress can reject it, modify it, or pass it. Usually, many changes are made to a budget before it passes.

Budgets are a slippery topic. The U.S. has two kinds of expenditures: on-budget and off-budget. Items that are off-budget are funded through supplemental appropriations. For example, George W. Bush did not include the cost of military operations in Iraq and Afghanistan in his budgets. Those operations were funded off-budget. When Barack Obama came into office he chose to include the cost of those military operations in his budgets. That boosted the size of his budgets by hundreds of billions of dollars, even if the government had otherwise spent exactly the same amount of money as in the previous year.

For the table on this page, I’ve chosen to use Total Outlays, which includes on-budget and off-budget expenditures.

I need to explain the term fiscal year. The government’s fiscal year currently begins on October 1 and runs through September 30. The fiscal year is named after the year in which the budget ends. So, for example, Ronald Reagan was elected in 1980, sworn into office in 1981, and sent his first budget to Congress for the fiscal year beginning in October, 1981, which was FY 1982. Reagan’s final budget was sent to Congress in 1988 for the next fiscal year, FY 1989.

I have seen “news” articles attributing the FY 2009 budget to Barack Obama. This is incorrect. The FY 2009 budget had been funding government for almost 4 months before Obama was sworn into office. Obama’s first budget was for FY 2010, and his last budget will be for either FY 2013 or (if he is re-elected) FY 2017.

Numbers for the following table are from the Office of Management and Budget and specifically Table 1.1—Summary of Receipts, Outlays, and Surpluses or Deficits (-): 1789–2017. Last updated Aug 9, 2016 using data from Table 1.1—Summary of Receipts, Outlays, and Surpluses or Deficits (-): 1789–2021.

Fiscal Year	Total Outlays (billions)	Previous Year (billions)	Difference (billions)	Percent Change (from previous year)
Ronald Reagan
1982	745.7	678.2	67.5	9.95%
1983	808.3	745.7	62.6	8.40%
1984	851.8	808.3	43.5	5.37%
1985	946.3	851.8	94.5	11.10%
1986	990.3	946.3	44.0	4.65%
1987	1004.0	990.3	13.7	1.38%
1988	1064.4	1004.0	60.4	6.02%
1989	1143.7	1064.4	79.3	7.45%
Average annual growth during Reagan terms				8.58%
G. H. W. Bush
1990	1253.0	1143.7	109.3	9.55%
1991	1324.2	1253.0	71.2	5.68%
1992	1381.5	1324.2	57.3	4.33%
1993	1409.4	1381.5	27.9	2.02%
Average annual growth during  Bush term				5.80%
Bill Clinton
1994	1461.8	1409.4	52.4	3.72%
1995	1515.7	1461.8	53.9	3.69%
1996	1560.5	1515.7	44.8	2.95%
1997	1601.1	1560.5	40.6	2.60%
1998	1652.5	1601.1	51.4	3.21%
1999	1701.8	1652.5	49.3	2.99%
2000	1789.0	1701.8	87.2	5.12%
2001	1862.8	1789.0	73.8	4.13%
Average annual growth during Clinton terms				4.02%
G. W. Bush
2002	2010.9	1862.8	148.1	7.95%
2003	2159.9	2010.9	149.0	7.41%
2004	2292.8	2159.9	132.9	6.16%
2005	2472.0	2292.8	179.2	7.81%
2006	2655.1	2472.0	283.1	7.41%
2007	2728.7	2655.1	73.6	2.77%
2008	2982.5	2728.7	253.8	9.30%
2009	3517.7	2982.5	535.2	17.94%
Average annual growth during  Bush terms				11.10%
Barack Obama
2010	3456.2	3517.7	– 61.5	– 1.75%
2011	3603.1	3456.2	146.9	4.25%
2012	3537.0	3603.1	-66.1	-1.83%
2013	3454.6	3537.0	-82.4	-2.32%
2014	3506.1	3454.6	51.5	1.49%
2015	3688.3	3506.1	182.2	5.20%
2016	3951.3*	3688.3	263.0*	7.13%*
2017	4147.2*	3951.3*	195.9*	4.96%*
Average annual growth during Obama terms				2.24%**

(* estimated; the fiscal year is not yet over.)
(** The last two years, 2016 & 2017, are estimated. The first six years of Obama's terms produced an average annual deficit of 0.81%.)

I have a final comment about the FY 2009 budget. The budget George Bush sent to Congress included a $400 billion deficit. However, Congress added more than $400 billion dollars of spending to the budget, and the economy tanked, resulting in tax receipts being $600 billion less than expected. These events resulted in a $1.4 trillion deficit. Without this massive FY 2009 deficit, Bush's average annual spending would have been 8.59%, almost identical to Reagan's 8.58%.

America’s Budget

See if you can guess who I’m talking about:

One of this president’s campaign talking points was the size of the federal budget. He said it was too large and if he was elected he would get it under control. People believed him and they voted him into office. However, the budget continued to grow, and when he left office the national debt was almost 3 times as large as when he took office.

If you guessed Ronald Reagan, you are correct.

It’s not unexpected that the budget grows larger each year, for a number of reasons. Every year we’re a bigger country – our population grows. More people means more poor people, more sick people, more retirees, and more mandated spending to take care of those people. In fact, only 37% of the budget is discretionary spending. Fully 63% of the budget is mandated spending (such as Medicare, Medicaid, and interest on the debt). There are federal programs to assist cities and states with their financial burdens, and more people means those programs will spend more. On top of that, inflation erodes the value of the dollar, so the government has to spend more dollars each year just to stay even with the previous year.

From 1980 to 2009, budget outlays grew from $590.9 billion to $3517.6 billion. That is an average increase of 6.6% per year.

Let’s talk about fiscal years. What is a fiscal year? From Wikipedia:

“The federal government's fiscal year currently begins on October 1 and ends on September 30 of the next calendar year. The fiscal year corresponds to the calendar year in which it ends; thus, fiscal year 2009 would begin on October 1, 2008 and end September 30, 2009.”

What this means is that the last Bush budget was the FY 2009 budget, which was enacted in 2008 and funded government from October, 2008, through September, 2009. Obama’s first budget was the FY 2010 budget, which funded government from October, 2009, until September, 2010.

It’s important to note that only Congress has the power to authorize spending. The President sends a budget to Congress, but it’s really a wish list. Congress can reject it, modify it, or pass it. Usually, many changes are made to a budget before it passes Congress.

Keeping that fact in mind, here are the total outlays (on-budget plus off-budget).

	Expenditure (billions)	Previous Year (billions)	Difference (billions)	Percentage Change (from the previous year)
FY 2010	3,721	3,518	+ 203	+ 5.77%
FY 2011	3,360	3,721	– 361	– 9.70%
FY 2012	3,796	3,360	+ 436	+ 12.98%
FY 2013	3,803*	3,796	+ 7	+ 0.18%
4 year average	3,668	3,599	+ 71	+ 2.3%

(* FY 2013 has been requested but not yet enacted.)

In FY 2010, Obama requested $3.552 trillion, but Congress enacted $3.721 trillion. Congress ordered more spending than Obama requested.

In FY2012, Obama requested $3.729 trillion, but Congress enacted $3.796 trillion. Once again, Congress ordered more spending than Obama requested.

If Obama can restrain Congress from packing his FY 2013 budget full of pork, and if, after four years, government spending has increased by an average rate of only 2.3% per year, it will mean that under Obama, the rate of government’s spending increases has been a third of the historical rate of spending increases since 1980.

Not bad for a “big spender”.

Reference: Office of Management and Budget, Historical Tables
Table 1.1—Summary of Receipts, Outlays, and Surpluses or Deficits (-): 1789–2017

Tomato Update

My first experiment with growing a tomato plant in a 5 gallon bucket is going well. The tomato plant is growing like a weed. Here it is on April 29:

And here it is on May 17, only 18 days later:

It already has a little tomato:

More Random Thoughts

Observation…

George Bush invaded Iraq looking for weapons of mass destruction.
Cost:  $4 trillion, thousands of American lives, hundreds of thousands of civilian lives.
Result: weapons of mass destruction are not found.

Barack Obama invaded Pakistan looking for Osama bin Laden who, unlike Saddam Hussein, actually executed an attack that killed thousands of Americans.
Cost:  One helicopter lost. No American casualties.
Result: A terrorist leader is killed, and Obama is ridiculed in emails which make him out to be a fool.

This is an example of cognitive dissonance, in which people try to hold conflicting cognitions (ideas, beliefs, opinions) simultaneously. On the one hand, conservatives assert that Obama is incompetent and can do nothing right. On the other hand, Obama gets credit for eliminating America’s most wanted terrorist. This conflict between belief and reality causes discomfort. The discomfort can be lessened in two ways: by belittling Obama’s contribution to the military operation and/or by reducing the importance of eliminating bin Laden. Both techniques have been employed since the raid on bin Laden’s compound, with the result that conservatives are once again comfortable with believing that Obama is incompetent and can do nothing right.

Bullies…

I still remember what a quadratic equation looks like from my high school algebra days. On the other hand, Mitt Romney claims he can’t recall pinning a classmate to the ground and cutting off the boy’s hair with scissors. Mitt says even if he did do it, it was just high jinks. After 50 years, Mitt Romney hasn’t grown enough to own the bad behavior of his youth.

Dog Flipping…

It’s a growing trend. You go to a dog breeder and buy a dog with a promise to give the dog a good home. Then you immediately sell the dog and pocket the profit. It’s like house-flipping but with a scared, trusting animal hoping to get a decent human master.

Citizenship…

A growing number of wealthy Americans are renouncing their citizenship in order to cut their tax bill. Among the latest to do this is Eduardo Saverin, the billionaire co-founder of Facebook. He is going to live in Singapore which has no capital gains tax. So much for loyalty to the land that made it possible for him to become a billionaire.