Is This Winter Unusual?

The TV news is reporting that those of us in the eastern US are having a very cold winter. Naturally, I wondered if I am having a very cold winter. I live in central Virginia which, when I last checked, is in the eastern US.

This winter isn’t over, but it’s 3/4 over. Suppose I add up the heating degree days for my location for the heating season thus far – October, November, December, January. Then suppose I do the same for the last nine years. That would give me a good idea of how cold this winter has been compared to the previous nine winters. (Heating degree days are a measure of how cold it has been. Bigger numbers mean colder weather.)

I plotted the result. Winter of 2003-4 is far left; winter of 2013-14 is far right. (Click image for larger version.)

Data from www.weatherdatadepot.com/

In terms of heating degree days, the average temperature for this winter so far has certainly been, well, average.

But perhaps I should go back farther and look at the bigger picture. So I plotted the average January temperature for Richmond, Virginia, for the years 1949 to 2014. 1949 is far left; 2014 is far right. (Click image for larger version.)

Data from weather-warehouse.com/

There’s nothing unusual about this January’s average temperature. It’s been colder than some years and warmer than others.

How about snowfall amounts? How does this January compare with previous years? I plotted Richmond’s total January snowfall for years 1949 to 2014. 1949 is far left; 2014 is far right. (Click image for larger version.)

Data from weather-warehouse.com/

If there is anything unusual about this winter’s weather – for central Virginia – I don’t see it. The weather looks positively average. Maybe the last two weeks of February will be a bear.