And So It Begins

11 AM: The Great Blizzard of 2016 arrived in central Virginia this morning. It will be a “36 hour event.” My city is near the southern edge of the snow zone. First there will be snow, then sleet and rain, then more snow.

It has been snowing a couple of hours and already the interstates are a mess. Side streets are white. As long as my house has electricity, I’ll be okay. So I sit and thumb my nose at the Great Blizzard. I mock the Great Blizzard. But, I have my fingers crossed that the Great Blizzard doesn’t shut down the electricity to my house. No electriciy means no heat. That would be a problem.

2 PM: The TV news reported that by 2 PM there had been 120 auto accidents across the state. The reporter didn’t say how many accidents usually occur on a Friday in January without snow. Therefore, 120 accidents could be a high number caused by people trying to drive in bad weather, or it could be a low number caused by people avoiding the roads because of bad weather. Telling us there have been 120 accidents is meaningless without context. So here’s some context. According to the Virginia DMV, there were 10,056 auto accidents in January, 2014 – an average of 324 per January day. For all of 2014 there were an average of 165 auto accidents on Fridays between the hours of midnight and 2 PM.

I’m staying off the roads, not because I can’t drive safely in snow; I’ve had to do that many times. I’m staying off the roads because I don’t trust those other drivers to drive safely in snow.