Wee Hours

I awoke in darkness. I rolled over and switched on the bedside lamp. I looked at the clock: 9:54. Wait – 9:54? Why is it still dark outside?  Sleepy brain clicks into gear – oh, it’s 9:54 PM. Momentary confusion: why am I waking up at bedtime? Then I remembered. I drank several shots of vodka this afternoon, something I normally never do at that time of day. Usually, when I drink alcohol I do it just before I go to bed. The afternoon drinks put me to sleep. Now it’s “morning” at 9:54 PM.

So, being not the least bit sleepy, I got up. I sat at my computer and surfed the Web for a while. Did you know that lizards dream? They do. And ravens know if other ravens are spying on them. And slime mold can learn and remember, but it forgets pretty quickly, too. I read that astrophysicist Neil Degrasse Tyson said it’s possible aliens have visited Earth but found no intelligent life here. If they visited in recent times, I can understand the part about finding no intelligent life. I sometimes have doubts, too.

I found myself getting hungry. Why am I so hungry? Oh yeah, I skipped supper. I needed a snack. So I fried a burger patty in a skillet. I put a bun on a plate and put mayo on both bun halves – partly for taste, partly to insulate the bread from the burger juices. When the patty was cooked, I put it on the bottom half of the bun and added salt and a few grinds of pepper. I put slices of onion and tomato on the burger, added mustard and ketchup and, finally, the top half of the bun. I put a spoonful of potato salad on the plate and sat down in front of the TV. I ate my midnight supper while something very forgettable played on the TV. Or was I eating breakfast? I pondered the question and made a Custer decision – a meal must be eaten between daybreak and noon for it to be called breakfast.

I finished my snack, still hungry. I waited a while, but the hunger didn’t go away. So I heated an egg roll and slathered it with Chinese hot mustard. It tasted good and my belly was satisfied – it quit sending “feed-me” messages to my brain.

There’s not much to watch on TV in the wee hours of the morning. I finished season 2 of Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt yesterday. Season 3 won’t be available until May, 2017, and when it’s released I’ll probably binge-watch the whole season in two days. It’s a funny show, in a 30 Rock way, but with a vein of dark humor running through the episodes. I like it, and Ellie Kemper is perfect for the lead character.

At 4 AM, CyberDave signed into Skype from Roanoke. We had just begun a video chat when don Raphael signed in from Alajuela. (Alajuela is the 2nd largest city in Costa Rica after the capital, San José.)  He joined the chat session. Two-person Skype chats seem to always work fine, but add a third person and sometimes there are problems. Not today. Skype worked flawlessly at this early morning hour, with no glitches, no dropouts, no delays – in other words, it worked as it’s supposed to work. Considering that one of us was in Central America and two of us were 180 miles apart in Virginia, it was impressive that the technology worked so well. The chat session ended just as the sky was beginning to lighten.

Dawn broke over a gray, overcast morning. The coming week is supposed to be cloudy/rainy/stormy – take your pick, they’re all on the menu. It will be a good week to do indoor stuff. Maybe I’ll post a blog. Anything is possible, they say.

Political Spin

My Congressman is fond of sending out mass emails. Or possibly, he is fond of ordering his staff to send out mass emails in his name. In any event, he began a recent email by complaining that the healthcare law is over 2500 pages long, but the Administration’s strategy to combat ISIS is only 7 pages long. This difference in document lengths apparently implies, according to the Congressman’s view, that Obama cares about his healthcare law 357 times more than combatting ISIS. That number is arrived at by simple math: 2500 pages divided by 7 pages. Or inversely, one could say that Obama cares about defeating ISIS only 0.0028 as much as his healthcare law. That is to say: 7 pages divided by 2500 pages. And even if the math is not exactly right (because, for example, the relationship between the two variables might not be linear), the implication remains that the more you care about solving a problem, the lengthier the documented solution should be.

This is just what the Congressman is implying – that the size of a document, as measured in number of pages, is proportional to how much the writer of the document cares about the subject of the document. If that is not what the Congressman is implying, then why mention the numbers?

But this implication is absurd if we think about it. Let’s reverse the numbers. Let’s suppose the healthcare law is 7 pages long, but the plan to combat ISIS is 2500 pages long. Does this make anyone feel better about either the healthcare system or the plan to defeat ISIS?

When I was in high school, I’m sure I could’ve knocked out a 7 page national healthcare law overnight as a homework assignment, but I’m also sure I would have written an absolutely terrible law.

How about this: a 2500 page World War 2 plan to invade Europe by landing on the beaches of Normandy? I don’t know how many pages were in the actual invasion plan, but I doubt that a 5000 page plan would automatically be twice as good as a 2500 page plan. And if General Eisenhower had handed Truman and Churchill a 2500 page invasion plan, I feel certain that neither Truman nor Churchill would have told him, “Not enough pages! Take it away and bring it back when it’s at least 10,000 pages long.”

When a politician says something, especially if it’s rehearsed or stated in an email, you must assume you’re hearing, if not outright lies or distortions, facts that political spin doctors have worked on to make you believe what that politician wants you to believe. Don’t be a sucker. Listen critically and question everything.

John Murphy

The song of the day is Sunshine (Adagio in D Minor) by English film composer John Murphy. The song was featured in the 2007 science fiction movie Sunshine. A variation of the song called Strobe (Adagio in D Minor) was used in the 2010 movie Kick-Ass.

Recent Budgets

For today’s post, I created a table of U.S. Federal Budget outlays over time. I know it’s a dry subject, but I think it’s instructive to see how the budget has grown through various administrations – even though, as we all (should) know, it is Congress that creates the budget. The budget process normally begins with the president, who sends a budget request to Congress, and then Congress tinkers with it, adding, deleting, modifying, and finally sends their version of the budget to the president to be signed. The president can only accept the budget in its entirety or reject it. In recent years this process has broken down, and budgets have sometimes been implemented by a series of continuing budget resolutions and allocations for individual government departments. Nevertheless, the outcome still constitutes a budget.

The Federal government’s fiscal year begins on October 1 and runs through September 30. The fiscal year is named after the year in which the budget ends. So, for example, Ronald Reagan was elected in 1980, sworn into office in 1981, and sent his first budget to Congress for the fiscal year beginning October 1, 1981, which was FY 1982. Reagan’s final budget was sent to Congress in 1988 for the next fiscal year, FY 1989.

Numbers for the following table are from the Office of Management and Budget: Table 1.1—Summary of Receipts, Outlays, and Surpluses or Deficits (-): 1789–2019 and Table 1.3—Summary of Receipts, Outlays, and Surpluses or Deficits (-) in Current Dollars, Constant (FY 2009) Dollars, and as Percentages of GDP: 1940–2021. Parentheses indicate a negative number.

Fiscal Year	Total Outlays (billions)	Previous Year (billions)	Difference (billions)	Growth from previous year	Total growth while in office
Ronald Reagan					53.4%
1982	745.7	678.2	67.5	9.95%
1983	808.3	745.7	62.6	8.40%
1984	851.8	808.3	43.5	5.37%
1985	946.3	851.8	94.5	11.10%
1986	990.3	946.3	44.0	4.65%
1987	1004.0	990.3	13.7	1.38%
1988	1064.4	1004.0	60.4	6.02%
1989	1143.7	1064.4	79.3	7.45%
G. H. W. Bush					12.5%
1990	1253.0	1143.7	109.3	9.55%
1991	1324.2	1253.0	71.2	5.68%
1992	1381.5	1324.2	57.3	4.33%
1993	1409.4	1381.5	27.9	2.02%
Bill Clinton					27.4%
1994	1461.8	1409.4	52.4	3.72%
1995	1515.7	1461.8	53.9	3.69%
1996	1560.5	1515.7	44.8	2.95%
1997	1601.1	1560.5	40.6	2.60%
1998	1652.5	1601.1	51.4	3.21%
1999	1701.8	1652.5	49.3	2.99%
2000	1789.0	1701.8	87.2	5.12%
2001	1862.8	1789.0	73.8	4.13%
G. W. Bush					74.9%
2002	2010.9	1862.8	148.1	7.95%
2003	2159.9	2010.9	149.0	7.41%
2004	2292.8	2159.9	132.9	6.16%
2005	2472.0	2292.8	179.2	7.81%
2006	2655.1	2472.0	283.1	7.41%
2007	2728.7	2655.1	73.6	2.77%
2008	2982.5	2728.7	253.8	9.30%
2009	3517.7	2982.5	535.2	17.94%
Barack Obama					6.7%
2010	3457.1	3517.7	(61.5)	(1.75%)
2011	3603.1	3457.1	146.0	4.22%
2012	3537.1	3603.1	(66.0)	(1.83%)
2013	3454.6	3537.1	(82.5)	(2.33%)
2014	3506.1	3454.6	51.4	1.49%
2015	3688.3	3506	182	5.19%

The chart below displays the data in the above table. The blue line charts expenditures; the brown line is a trendline. The best fit trendline was determined to be exponential with a fit of 0.986.

A better picture of what is happening might be obtained by adjusting all the amounts for inflation. Federal outlays in chained 2009 dollars are charted below. The best fit trendline was still exponential with a fit of 0.952. Stimulus spending after the 2008 real estate/investment banking crash is very obvious.

As the population and economy grow, it is no surprise that Federal spending also grows. So to add perspective, the chart below shows how U.S. GDP has changed over the same time interval. To account for inflation, the chart uses chained 2009 dollars.

Bring in the BUFFs

The Air Force is pulling their B-1s out of the fight against ISIS and replacing them with B-52s. Air Force Secretary Deborah Lee James says the air campaign against ISIS is "taking a toll on our aircraft, our readiness and our airmen." So it’s time to bring in the BUFFs, as they are informally called. BUFF stands for Big Ugly Fat Fellow. (Okay, the second ‘F’ doesn’t really stand for Fellow, but I try to keep this blog G-rated.)

The B-52 is the oldest aircraft in the Air Force inventory. It entered service in 1955 and the newest airplane still flying was built in 1962. They’ve been upgraded with modern electronics, communications, and high-tech sensors, but they’re still old airframes. In 2015 the B-52 completed 60 years of continuous service. It seems the B-52 is the bomber we always fall back on to get the job done.

We have newer bombers that were supposed to replace the B-52. There was the B-1B Lancer, introduced to service in 1986. When the first B-1 was rolled out of the factory before a crowd of 30,000, the engines wouldn’t start. Design flaws, fuel leaks, and engine problems kept the B-1 out of Operation Desert Storm. The plane had to be debugged before it could be flown on bombing missions.

There was the B-2 Spirit, also called the stealth bomber, introduced to service in 1993 and operational since 1997. It requires a climate-controlled hangar. Its stealth technology is so delicate that the plane can’t fly in the rain lest its stealthy outer coating becomes damaged.

B-52s were used over Viet Nam. B-52s dropped 40% of munitions during Operation Desert Storm. They were used in Operation Desert Strike. They bombed Serb targets in Yugoslavia during Operation Allied Force. They were used in Afghanistan and southwest Asia during Operation Enduring Freedom. They flew missions in Operation Iraqi Freedom.

The US Air Force once had 744 B-52s. They’re down to 76 aircraft now. Many were retired when they reached the end of their service life. Another 365 were chopped into pieces as part of the Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START).

The Air Force cites several reasons for the B-52 still being in service after so many years. It is an effective and economical heavy bomber in the absence of sophisticated air defense. And there has been no reliable replacement. One study found the B-52’s ready rate averages 80.5% compared to the B-1’s 53.7% ready rate and the B-2’s 30.3% ready rate.

The Air Force intends to keep the B-52 in service until 2045. By then, the B-52 will have been in continuous service for 90 years. They will certainly have earned a retirement and will probably be taken out of service. On the other hand, it wouldn’t be a total surprise to see a few B-52s flying missions beyond even that distant date. The airplane is a rugged, well-built and well-maintained tool of war, and, after all, a 90 year old hammer can still drive a nail.

It Must Be True – It’s On The Internet

The Pyramid of Giza is actually a hangar for an alien space ship. The ship is inside that mountain of granite blocks, its engine humming away and producing “thermal anomalies.” The Internet says so, and the Internet is never wrong. If you read it on the Internet, you can be sure it’s the truth. And because I’m on the Internet, everything I write on this blog is, by definition, totally true. Please keep that in mind.

Another recent piece of news on the Internet says that kangaroo farts are worse for global warming than climate scientists previously believed. I didn’t know that climate scientists had studied kangaroo farts, but now that I’m aware of it, I have to wonder: do fish fart? There are millions of fish in the ocean, and that could add up to a lot of fartage. How about dolphins and whales? After all, they’re mammals, and don’t all mammals fart?

But enough fart-foolery. Here’s another headline: Leonid meteor shower to peak overnight. People! It’s peaking! Tonight! Whenever I read that a rare and visually interesting astronomical event is happening that night, I know it can only mean one thing: it’s going to rain tonight. Doesn’t matter. I’ve lived through enough meteor showers to be able to state unequivocally: meteor showers are completely underwhelming. They go like this: “There’s one, I think.” Sixty seconds passes. “Ooh, I think I just saw another.” Exciting, huh? Also, keep in mind that a lot of shooting stars are nothing more than small bits of old rockets and satellite debris falling back into the atmosphere. You could be ooh-ing and ah-ing over the sight of a 4-40 screw burning up. Not something to write home about. On the other hand, you (quick, before it disappears) may want to make a wish. You never know about these things.

Sundry Observations

I haven’t posted a blog in a while. Notice I didn’t say that I haven’t written a blog in a while. Oh, I’ve been writing, but my writing quality has not been up to the level of mediocrity that my readers expect, so my recent writing remains in a state of un-posted-ness.

I also have many blog posts that I started but didn’t finish. Sometimes what seems like a good idea just doesn’t go anywhere. So today I’m going to pull a few paragraphs out of some un-posted posts and stick them into this post. In other words, allow me to quote – me.

“You may have heard the term “asymmetrical warfare” and wondered what it means. It means we send an airplane that cost $80 million to purchase, and $24,000 an hour to fly, on a mission to drop a $40,000 smart bomb in order to destroy their used pickup truck worth $1500.”

“A recent piece of news on the Internet says that kangaroo farts are worse for global warming than climate scientists previously believed. Prior to this announcement, I did not know that computer climate models incorporated data on kangaroo farts. It begs the question: who collects data on kangaroo farts? And, is this an actual job that people are paid to do? And, eww…”

“In American politics, conservatives believe two things above all else: First, America is the greatest country in the world, and second, that we must elect a president who will make America great again. To which I say, what?”

“Did you know that there is a chemical in some foods called natural butter type flavor? The chemical is diacetyl, and prolonged exposure to its vapors can cause a serious, obstructive lung disease called bronchiolitis or popcorn lung, so-called because diacetyl is or was used in microwave popcorn. Ironically, it has been an ingredient in cigarette tobacco for fifty years. Seriously. I guess tobacco companies figure anyone who inhales cigarette smoke all day long, year after year, doesn’t really care about what a few extra chemicals might do to their lungs.”

“I think the most misleading place name is the Canary Islands, also known as the Canaries. When originally discovered, the islands were home to vast numbers of large dogs. Romans called the islands Canariae Insulae, Latin for “Islands of the Dogs.” They now belong to Spain; the Spanish call the islands Islas Canarias, Spanish for “Islands of the Dogs”. No actual canaries were involved in the naming.”

“How is this possible? I go to the hardware store and buy 6 bolts, 6 nuts, 6 flat washers, and 6 lock washers for a home repair project. The clerk puts them into a plastic bag and I go home. At home, I open the bag and there are 6 bolts, 6 nuts, 5 flat washers, and 4 lock washers. Where did the rest go?”

“At the grocery store, I buy a frozen meat loaf with mashed potatoes entrée.  The picture on the box shows a delicious-looking meatloaf glazed with ketchup and gravy and accompanied by fluffy mashed potatoes. What actually comes out of the microwave is soupy mashed potatoes and a couple of little brown dominos without spots. There is no hint of ketchup.”

That’s enough copying-and-pasting-and-editing for one day. Now I have some posts in my Drafts folder that I can delete. Sayonara, and may your weekend be blissful.