For today’s post, I created a table of U.S. Federal Budget outlays over time. I know it’s a dry subject, but I think it’s instructive to see how the budget has grown through various administrations – even though, as we all (should) know, it is Congress that creates the budget. The budget process normally begins with the president, who sends a budget request to Congress, and then Congress tinkers with it, adding, deleting, modifying, and finally sends their version of the budget to the president to be signed. The president can only accept the budget in its entirety or reject it. In recent years this process has broken down, and budgets have sometimes been implemented by a series of continuing budget resolutions and allocations for individual government departments. Nevertheless, the outcome still constitutes a budget.
The Federal government’s fiscal year begins on October 1 and runs through September 30. The fiscal year is named after the year in which the budget ends. So, for example, Ronald Reagan was elected in 1980, sworn into office in 1981, and sent his first budget to Congress for the fiscal year beginning October 1, 1981, which was FY 1982. Reagan’s final budget was sent to Congress in 1988 for the next fiscal year, FY 1989.
Numbers for the following table are from the Office of Management and Budget: Table 1.1—Summary of Receipts, Outlays, and Surpluses or Deficits (-): 1789–2019 and Table 1.3—Summary of Receipts, Outlays, and Surpluses or Deficits (-) in Current Dollars, Constant (FY 2009) Dollars, and as Percentages of GDP: 1940–2021. Parentheses indicate a negative number.
| Fiscal Year | Total Outlays (billions) | Previous Year (billions) | Difference (billions) | Growth from previous year | Total growth while in office |
| Ronald Reagan | 53.4% | ||||
| 1982 | 745.7 | 678.2 | 67.5 | 9.95% | |
| 1983 | 808.3 | 745.7 | 62.6 | 8.40% | |
| 1984 | 851.8 | 808.3 | 43.5 | 5.37% | |
| 1985 | 946.3 | 851.8 | 94.5 | 11.10% | |
| 1986 | 990.3 | 946.3 | 44.0 | 4.65% | |
| 1987 | 1004.0 | 990.3 | 13.7 | 1.38% | |
| 1988 | 1064.4 | 1004.0 | 60.4 | 6.02% | |
| 1989 | 1143.7 | 1064.4 | 79.3 | 7.45% | |
| G. H. W. Bush | 12.5% | ||||
| 1990 | 1253.0 | 1143.7 | 109.3 | 9.55% | |
| 1991 | 1324.2 | 1253.0 | 71.2 | 5.68% | |
| 1992 | 1381.5 | 1324.2 | 57.3 | 4.33% | |
| 1993 | 1409.4 | 1381.5 | 27.9 | 2.02% | |
| Bill Clinton | 27.4% | ||||
| 1994 | 1461.8 | 1409.4 | 52.4 | 3.72% | |
| 1995 | 1515.7 | 1461.8 | 53.9 | 3.69% | |
| 1996 | 1560.5 | 1515.7 | 44.8 | 2.95% | |
| 1997 | 1601.1 | 1560.5 | 40.6 | 2.60% | |
| 1998 | 1652.5 | 1601.1 | 51.4 | 3.21% | |
| 1999 | 1701.8 | 1652.5 | 49.3 | 2.99% | |
| 2000 | 1789.0 | 1701.8 | 87.2 | 5.12% | |
| 2001 | 1862.8 | 1789.0 | 73.8 | 4.13% | |
| G. W. Bush | 74.9% | ||||
| 2002 | 2010.9 | 1862.8 | 148.1 | 7.95% | |
| 2003 | 2159.9 | 2010.9 | 149.0 | 7.41% | |
| 2004 | 2292.8 | 2159.9 | 132.9 | 6.16% | |
| 2005 | 2472.0 | 2292.8 | 179.2 | 7.81% | |
| 2006 | 2655.1 | 2472.0 | 283.1 | 7.41% | |
| 2007 | 2728.7 | 2655.1 | 73.6 | 2.77% | |
| 2008 | 2982.5 | 2728.7 | 253.8 | 9.30% | |
| 2009 | 3517.7 | 2982.5 | 535.2 | 17.94% | |
| Barack Obama | 6.7% | ||||
| 2010 | 3457.1 | 3517.7 | (61.5) | (1.75%) | |
| 2011 | 3603.1 | 3457.1 | 146.0 | 4.22% | |
| 2012 | 3537.1 | 3603.1 | (66.0) | (1.83%) | |
| 2013 | 3454.6 | 3537.1 | (82.5) | (2.33%) | |
| 2014 | 3506.1 | 3454.6 | 51.4 | 1.49% | |
| 2015 | 3688.3 | 3506 | 182 | 5.19% |
The chart below displays the data in the above table. The blue line charts expenditures; the brown line is a trendline. The best fit trendline was determined to be exponential with a fit of 0.986.
A better picture of what is happening might be obtained by adjusting all the amounts for inflation. Federal outlays in chained 2009 dollars are charted below. The best fit trendline was still exponential with a fit of 0.952. Stimulus spending after the 2008 real estate/investment banking crash is very obvious.
As the population and economy grow, it is no surprise that Federal spending also grows. So to add perspective, the chart below shows how U.S. GDP has changed over the same time interval. To account for inflation, the chart uses chained 2009 dollars.
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