Arctic Blast

The news media are agog over the approaching arctic blast, polar vortex, or whatever it’s called today. (In the long ago days of my youth, it was called winter.) As I write this, the temperature is 42°F in my central Virginia city. Tonight’s low is supposed to be 10°F. Some say this proves that global warming isn’t real. Are we to believe cold weather in winter disproves global warming? Okay then, next Tuesday, six days from now, the temperature is forecast to be 70°F. If cold weather proves global warming is false, then shouldn’t warm weather prove global warming is real? But people have very selective memories. Someone will say, “Look, a snowball! Where is this global warming thing?” They’ll remember that snowball. But suppose a week later they go to the shopping center and see people wearing shorts and T-shirts in the dead of winter. That they won’t remember.

This tendency to remember (and believe) only evidence that supports our previous beliefs is a well known phenomenon. It’s called confirmation bias. Many people will say, “This proves I was right.” But few people will say, “This proves I was wrong.”

When I was younger, winters were brutally cold. I had a ski jacket and wore it often. I also had a heavy parka with a hood and I wore it, too. I haven’t needed either of them in many years. I have a lighter weight coat that I wear perhaps 3 or 4 times in a winter. The rest of the winter I wear a light jacket or just a hoodie.

When I moved into my house 16 years ago, lawn mowing season began in May. After a few years, I had to start mowing in April. Last year I had to start mowing in March. Warm weather begins earlier with each passing year.

This winter may have a few days of extraordinarily cold weather for parts of North America, but the southern hemisphere has summer now and they’re baking in record-breaking heat. Why isn’t this reported more broadly so that people will have a balanced view of what is happening to our planet? I’m guessing the news media know all about confirmation bias and the uselessness of trying to inform people who have made up their minds and don’t want to be confused by facts.