The Covid Formula

On March 30 there were 161,800 confirmed cases of Covid-19 in the US. One month later, on April 30, there were 1,100,000 cases of Covid-19 in the US.

At the end of April, the US had 6.8 times the number of cases it had at the end of March, despite a partial lockdown. (I call it partial because I’m sure many people ignore it.)

The growth in US cases since the end of March has been linear, not exponential. The country, even half shutdown, is adding 900,000 cases per month.

Something will change this trajectory of cases. What will that something be? The possibilities, in order of decreasing likelihood, are:

1. An effective drug cure
2. An effective vaccine
3. Herd immunity
4. Summer heat
5. Friendly space aliens

I know it’s a longshot, but I hope it’s number 5. Imagine: a saucer lands in my backyard and friendly aliens beam out of the saucer and shoot me with anti-viral health rays. I’ll invite them into my house for a little SciFi-watching on the flat-screen. I wonder which alien creature they’ll look like? I kind of hope they’ll look like Frank from Men In Black. A-n-d … I also hope they don’t bite.